Forecast for 2017/2018 mg for grain reserves and export reduction

The next year, according to forecasts, IA "APK-Inform" promises to present various surprises for several objective reasons.

It is not yet clear what to expect from the weather, but even with stable indicators, it is planned to collect grain legumes and cereals by 2.5% less than in 2016/2017 marketing year. The total harvest should be 64.5 million tons at the current level of 66.1 million tons. The total volume of exports of grain and leguminous crops this year fell by 11.2% to 40 million tons. Last year's volume was estimated at 45 million tons.

Analysts say that the yield and production, if fallen, is insignificant. In fact, there are other, more weighty reasons for the decline in sales of Ukrainian products to foreign markets. First of all, the carry-over stock decreased. In 2015/2016 it was 7.1 million tons against today's 4.7 million tons.

The second reason is in agrarians. They reduce sales due to the global price drop in the global market. Logistical difficulties and the presence of speculators on grain exchanges also contributed to a drop in sales.

The third reason is the tough competition from Russia, which at high yield and low price grabs foreign markets, displacing Ukrainian products.

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